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Benefits and Costs of Opening Brazil’s Foreign Trade

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : August 13, 2018

The Brazilian economy pays a price in terms of productivity foregone because of its lack of trade openness. A trade opening process would bring an adjustment impact that could nonetheless be mitigated with public policies that facilitate labor mobility and job migration. Benefits from trade opening would also hinge on policy improvements in complementary areas, such as infrastructure investments, business environment and others.

Quand les grands se fâchent, le monde panique !

Tayeb Ghazi | Posted : August 13, 2018

Depuis la fin de l’année 2017, le président Donald Trump mène plusieurs batailles commerciales, contre différents partenaires, sous prétextes de sauver des emplois industriels américains et de réduire le déficit commercial des États-Unis. S’il est difficile de se prononcer sur les effets des combats commerciaux amorcés par le président Trump, l’importance des opposants et des échanges pour l’économie mondiale en fait une source de risque pour la croissance, les emplois et les prix à l’échelle planétaire.

Running the Risk of Turning the Planet into a Garbage Dump

Helmut Sorge | Posted : August 09, 2018

Garbage, at times, stinks of gold. E-waste, toxic, or nuclear trash, is making the Mafia wealthy, allowing crime syndicates to perfume their bank accounts, or fill their safes with cash. Waste management is extremely lucrative. The EU’s trash business has an estimated turnover of over 100 billion yearly. The largest 25 European waste management firms employ 130,000 people. Now, multiply on the global scale—much of it illegal, and therefore often in cash. Welcome to the Godfather. It is well known to movie fans, who admired Marlon Brando as Don Vito Corleone in “The Godfather,” that Southern Italian Mafia groups like Ndrangheta , Camorra, Cosa Nostra, have been for decades cashing in on a variety of activities. Brutal and powerful, from Rome to New York, London, Rio and beyond, these mafia groups cash in on construction sites, protection scheme’s, kidnapping, drug deals, boxing promoters, unions, film production, and even control part of the trash hauling business in Manhattan. One of my friends, managing director of a famous hotel near Madison Avenue, told me about one of his recent meetings with a representative of daily trash haulers based in Brooklyn. The mafia had raised its price by 25 percent and made it clear to the hotel manager how they would react to a refusal: “Until you agree we will empty a full garbage truck each day in front of your hotel lobby. Your guest(s) will enjoy the smell.”

The Little Summit that Could : Looking back on the 31st African Union Summit in Nouakchott

Malik Abaddi | Posted : August 08, 2018

The African Union goes to Mauritania

Under the theme “Winning the Fight Against Corruption”, the 31st Summit of the African Union was held in early July in the desert capital Nouakchott. In a bitter prelude in late June, the AU’s commitment to this central theme was dealt a blow with the sudden – and public – resignation of Ghana’s Daniel Batidam from the AU Advisory Board on Corruption. Off to a rocky start, the summit had an even rougher road ahead of it. 

Global imbalances and currency bullying

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : August 06, 2018

The IMF released last July 24 its latest assessments of the current account balances for the 30 largest economies in its External Sector Report 2018 (ESR). There was no major change in 2017 relative to previous years and the reconfiguration of surpluses and deficits that has prevailed since 2013 was essentially extended. However, there are reasons to expect more abrupt alterations ahead, as the U.S. fiscal easing under high employment conditions unfolds. Given the context of ongoing U.S.-led trade wars, as well as the recent bout of Chinese exchange rate depreciation, one may wonder about the prospects of currencies also becoming subject to war or rather to what one might call “currency bullying”.

Chinese Trash Refusal and its Consequences: A Wake-up Call for the World

Helmut Sorge | Posted : August 01, 2018

“A WAKE UP CALL FOR THE WORLD”

For Simon Elin, chief executive of the British Recycling Association, it’s “a tough time” his industry and country are facing just now. He does not think about Brexit, Britain trying to leave the E.U., dreaming to return to glorious times as a world power, one day soon. His colleague Arnaud Brunet, head of the Bureau of International Recycling, predicted “catastrophic environmental problems.” An assessment the London Times shared: “The world is drowning in plastic as China is shutting the door to waste.”

Food Security in Morocco and India: Different Challenges for Joint Answers?

Ihssane Guennoun | Posted : August 01, 2018

“This article has been originally published in 'Morocco in Focus 2018,' the magazine of the Moroccan Embassy in New Delhi, India on the occasion of the Morocco National Day 2018.”

Les quatre premiers mois d'Abiy Ahmed Ali : bilan intérieur et extérieur

Tristan Coloma , Benjamin Augé | Posted : July 27, 2018

Arrivé au pouvoir le 2 avril 2018, le premier ministre Ethiopien Abiy Ahmed Ali, issu de la majorité oromo, a été imposé à une minorité tigréenne ayant cadenassé les postes à la tête de l'Etat, depuis la domination politique de la coalition de l'Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) en 1991. Chef de l'Oromia Urban Development and Housing Bureau en charge des programmes de construction dans sa région, ainsi que vice-président de cette région peuplée de plus de 30 millions d'habitants, Abiy Ahmed Ali, déjà député, est devenu le président de l'Oromo People's Democratic Organisation (OPDO) - un des partis de l'EPRDF - en septembre 2017 aux dépens de Lemma Megersa. Ce dernier n'étant pas membre de la chambre des représentants des peuples, il ne pouvait accéder à la primature. Malgré tout, Megersa, le ministre des affaires étrangères, Workeneh Gebeyehu et le premier ministre démissionnaire Hailemariam Desalegn, se sont mobilisés pour l'aider à l'emporter au niveau fédéral, au sein de l'organe suprême de décision de l'EPRDF. Depuis plusieurs mois, une ardente bataille opposait principalement les Oromos et les Amharas de l'EPRDF, pour prendre le pouvoir en tentant d'amoindrir la mainmise du Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF, noyau dur de l'EPRDF) qui l'accaparait totalement. Depuis 2016, la répression, par le régime éthiopien, des manifestations dans cette région et dans la zone Amhara, poussée par les durs du TPLF qui craignaient de perdre le pouvoir, a agi comme un formidable tremplin pour qu'un Oromo prenne le pouvoir ouvrant un boulevard à Abiy Ahmed Ali. En effet, la position des cadres du TPLF de conserver, à tout prix, le pouvoir au sein de l'EPRDF est devenu intenable et a, même, menacé la survie de la coalition au pouvoir, voire même l'intégrité de l'Ethiopie. L'imposition de l'Etat d’urgence, le 12 février 2018, pour la deuxième fois en dix-huit mois, n'a, d'ailleurs, en rien permis de régler les problèmes de fond de cohésion nationale, créés par le TPLF. Elle a juste permis de gagner du temps avant une inévitable recomposition des forces au sein de l'EPRDF.

An even greater threat than climate change

Helmut Sorge | Posted : July 26, 2018

The lion roared. A thunderous, gut-freezing roar. Followed by a ferocious growl, just to make sure that the adrenaline would reach explosive heights. Again, the thunderstorm effect, menacing, rumbling in the distance. This was a different storm. I could see the massive head. Its contour. Did I notice the eyes, yellow and green? A lion. Male and twenty yards away. Covered by a dense, green, bush. Since I am an admirer of Hemingway’s adventures, I was aware that the author estimated that a lion could run hundred yards in four seconds. I did not need my arithmetic to figure out how close I was to pain or even death.

Le jihad au Sahel, recul ou extension ? (Partie II)

Sabine Cessou | Posted : July 20, 2018

Lors d’un séminaire, organisé par l’OCP Policy Center, le 20 juin 2018, à Rabat, des experts du jihad dans le Sahel se sont posé la question de l’extension ou du recul de ces groupes armés. La première partie du compte-rendu des discussions a été publiée ici.

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